So the situation in Georgia and South Ossetia is one that's extremely complicated, and as I type this, Russian troops are apparently moving further into Georgian territory, complicating things even further. But here are the facts, as best as I have been able to ascertain them:
- Both the Georgian and Russian militaries were in forward positions, anticipating the conflict, well before it actually began.
- Under cover of the Olympic opening ceremonies, Georgia invaded South Ossetia, a province that has been de facto autonomous since the breakup of the Soviet Union but which Georgia views as part of its territory. Their justification was an increase in artillery attacks by Ossete separatists, shelling Georgian regulars across the border.
- The Ossete separatists are largely supported by the Russian military, who provide training, equipment, and high-level leadership to those rebels. Most of the Ossete civilian population hold Russian passports, as their autonomy is not recognized by the international community. Because of that, the Russians saw the Georgian incursion as an infringement on their sphere of influence and an attack on Russian citizens, leading to:
- A counterattack which repelled the Georgian offensive, advanced into Georgia itself (namely, the city of Gori). That's in addition to air and naval attacks on Georgian military bases across the country - justified by Russia as a measure to prevent further attacks on South Ossetia.
I'm also reading now that the Russian incursion into Georgia has seized a key east-west transportation corridor - basically the only link connecting the capital of Tiblisi to Georgia's ports on the Black Sea. This is the major transportation thoroughfare in Georgia - it's akin to Interstate 95 on the East Coast.
And that's where we are now - everything else is speculation. So I will speculate:
I think that, in 20 years, we will look back on this war and view it as the first shot in a series of small wars Russia will engage in to reassert its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. I'm not going to be a dramatic neocon and say this is the beginning of a Nazi-esque reemergence of Russia - rhetoric that we've seen from Bob Kagan in the WaPo and indeed, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili this morning on CNN, who referred to Germany's assertion in 1939 that Poland had shot first in the conflict that started World War II (Russia asserts, correctly from all I can gather, that Georgia initiated these hostilities). But I do not think it's an isolated conflict; rather, the beginning of an arc of history.
You'll notice in these reports that the United States is not participating in the diplomacy going on here, at least not overtly. Negotiations are being handled by Nicolas Sarkozy in his capacity as EU president - although neither Georgia or Russia are EU members. And truly, we have no leverage or moral authority here. We invaded a sovereign nation ourselves not too long ago. And with our forces stretched to the limit in Iraq and Afghanistan, what kind of response can we promise the Russians for overstepping in Georgia?
The scary thing is that, according to some early reports and some observers of the conflict, it seems clear that the United States knew of the troop buildup on both sides, and it also makes logical sense that the Georgians would not have begun a military action without consulting with us. About 130 United States military advisers are in Georgia - it's a country completely dependent on us for protection. If we egged the Georgians onto this action knowing full well that we would not be able to adequately respond in case things went sour, it's an incredibly irresponsible foreign policy blunder by an administration that has distinguished itself in that regard in the past 8 years.
To add another dimension into this, Georgia is home to the only pipeline in the region not controlled by Russia, and Gazprom (the Russian national oil company) has significant investments in South Ossetia.
Of course, an international crisis during an American presidential campaign assures that the candidates will attempt to one-up themselves by delivering nut-grabbing statements. John McCain said "Today, we are all Georgians", a ridiculous statement as the average American likely can't point Georgia out on a map, and certainly would not be willing to commit American forces to fight and die for that country. He also asserted that Putin is interested in rebuilding the old Russian empire - not just the Soviet Union, mind you, but the Anastasia and Tolstoy-era entity. I'm not sure what that even means, to be honest. So, the McCain position on this incredibly complicated and delicate issue basically amounts to mindless sloganeering. Obama's not much better: after issuing as nuanced a statement as could be expected from a major-party presidential candidate, he was forced to backtrack after the Republicans questioned his manhood. All of this dick-waving is pointless, anyway, as we are in no position to influence these events in any meaningful way.
So basically, a lot of stuff is happening in a faraway place, and while we used to be able to put a stop to these kinds of events or at least slow them down, we are no longer able to because we're militarily unable to respond, morally not in a place to object, and economically paralyzed because of Russia's control of vast oil reserves, the contraction of which would certainly cause another spike in crude prices. Thank you, George Bush, for all of those things.
As always I'm learning about these things through a variety of blogs, including the Belgravia Dispatch, Matthew Yglesias, and John Cole.